Population aging cannot be reversed, and adult diaper sales exceed baby diaper sales

The world's population is aging, driven by longer lifespans and smaller families, in what the United Nations calls an "irreversible global trend."

The number of people aged 65 and over is expected to more than double to 1.6 billion by 2050, according to a UN report released last year.

In Japan, the change is threatening one of the world's largest economies as the proportion of elderly people increases and the number of couples having children decreases.

Japan announced in early June that the number of births fell for the eighth consecutive year, with the number of births in 2023 hitting a new low of 727,277 since it began compiling data more than 120 years ago.

A few months ago, Japan said one in ten people 80 years old or older, making it the oldest country in the world. Nearly 30% of Japan's population was 65 or older last year.

In June 2023, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a multibillion-dollar basket of measures to encourage families to have more children. Japan is grappling with a demographic crisis that could affect pension funds and health care as the workforce shrinks and demand surges from an aging population.

The growth of the elderly population is also changing the consumer goods market.

Demand for adult diapers has been rising in Japan, while demand for baby diapers has been falling.

The global market value of adult diapers is expected to reach $12.8 billion in 2023, according to market research provider Euromonitor International. It is expected to reach nearly $15.5 billion by 2026.

Japanese manufacturer Oji Holdings Co. Holdings is a prime example of a company adapting to this shift. The company announced in March that it would stop making baby diapers for the Japanese market later this year to focus on adult incontinence products.

The company said it would continue to operate its baby diaper business overseas. Despite the slowdown in the domestic market, the company's total baby diaper sales in China, Indonesia and Malaysia have grown; in 2023, the company's adult diaper sales will exceed baby diapers by 7.3%.

Other Japanese companies are already adapting to this shift. According to Panasonic's website, the electronics giant has been researching and developing products for the elderly since 1990.

Kitchen appliance maker Zojirushi is also offering product features for the elderly, such as electric tea kettles that send water to the injection when used.

Japan isn’t the only country in Asia facing aging issues. South Korea has the lowest fertility rate in the world; the country will have 0.72 babies per woman in 2023, down from 0.78 in 2022, a record low. The South Korean government has set up a special ministry to deal with the demographic crisis: the Low Birth Rate Countermeasures Ministry. Birth rates are also falling in Hong Kong, mainland China and Taiwan.

According to the United Nations, by 2050, six Asian countries or regions will be among the top ten with the highest proportion of people over 65, with Hong Kong topping the list. By 2100, Africa is expected to be the only region with less than 15% of its population being elderly. The United Nations predicts that by then, Europe, North America and Latin America and the Caribbean may have more than 30% of their population being elderly.

Even though Europe and North America have the highest proportion of elderly people now, North Africa, West Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to have the fastest growth in the number of elderly people over the next 30 years.